Why own bonds in your portfolio?
Earlier this year, we did an episode explaining bonds. But we often hear that folks understand what bonds are; the question is why do I want them in my portfolio, especially if stocks have historically produced higher long term returns?
The answer starts with understanding that stocks and bonds have different jobs. A successful portfolio is not built by choosing one perfect investment. It combines investments that support different goals. Stocks generally provide long term growth. Bonds can provide stability, income, and flexibility.
Stocks have delivered stronger returns over many decades, but those returns come with greater risk. Markets have experienced severe declines, including the technology crash, the 2008 financial crisis, and the rapid decline in early 2020. It is easy to claim comfort with risk when markets are rising. That confidence can change quickly during a major downturn. Bonds can help reduce portfolio volatility and make it easier to remain committed to a long term plan.
The current interest rate environment also strengthens the case for bonds. For many years after the financial crisis, bond yields were extremely low. Bonds offered limited income, even though they still helped control risk. Higher interest rates now allow many high quality bonds to produce more meaningful cash flow. This can be especially valuable for retirees who depend on their portfolios to fund living expenses.
Bonds also help address the danger of selling stocks during a market decline. A retiree with an all stock portfolio may be forced to sell investments at depressed prices to cover withdrawals. Those sales lock in losses and leave fewer shares available to benefit from a later recovery. A portfolio that includes bonds and cash may give the investor another source for distributions while stocks recover.
This issue is known as sequence of returns risk. Two retirees can earn the same average return over 25 years and still experience very different results. The investor who suffers major losses early in retirement may run into trouble because withdrawals occur while the portfolio is declining. Bonds can provide income and liquidity during those periods. For example, a retiree with 40 percent in bonds and a 4 percent annual withdrawal rate may have roughly ten years of potential distributions available from the bond allocation, even before considering growth or rebalancing.
The unusual market environment of 2022 does not mean diversification stopped working. Stocks and bonds both declined as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to control inflation. Diversification is not designed to protect investors during every short period. It is designed to improve the range of possible outcomes over time.
The central lesson is that successful investing is not about earning the highest return every year. It is about creating the greatest probability of reaching financial goals while taking only the risk that is necessary. Bonds are not competitors to stocks. They are complementary tools that can provide income, stability, and flexibility when markets become difficult.