In this episode of Nurturing Financial Freedom, we dive headfirst into the recent stock market volatility and explore what’s driving it—and more importantly, how investors should respond. We tackle the question on everyone's mind: "What the heck is going on with the market?"
Ed kicks things off with a breakdown of recent market activity, noting that since the February 19 peak, the market has dropped roughly 9.5% as of April 1. He explains that this pullback is largely driven by elevated stock valuations and policy uncertainty. The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is sitting well above its 30-year average, which has made the market more sensitive to any negative headlines. Add to that the confusion surrounding tariffs and trade policy—especially whether these moves are part of negotiation tactics or a longer-term shift toward protectionism—and we’re looking at a market trying to digest a lot at once.
Ed emphasizes the importance of sticking to a well-diversified portfolio and keeping allocations aligned with long-term goals. If your portfolio has drifted because of recent gains or losses, now is the time to rebalance. We revisit the idea of “fire drills,” a proactive approach Birch Run uses with clients to prepare for downturns before they happen.
Alex then provides some critical historical perspective. He reminds us that every downturn—whether it's the Panic of 1907, the crash of 1929, or COVID in 2020—has been temporary. The key takeaway? Don’t let short-term fear drive long-term mistakes. He shares how missing just the 10 best market days over a 30-year span could slash an example portfolio growth by nearly $1 million. And since many of those “best days” tend to cluster around the worst ones, jumping in and out of the market is a dangerous game.
Alex and Ed both stress that timing the market is not only incredibly difficult (if not impossible), but often detrimental. Staying invested with a balanced strategy that fits your goals is almost always the right approach. While we can’t predict where the market will go in 2025, we can recommend avoiding behavioral traps and sticking to the fundamentals.
Listen through to the end of the show to hear how ice cream ties in to all of this.