In this mid-year episode of Nurturing Financial Freedom, we reflect on what 2025 has taught us about markets, economic conditions, and investor behavior. We're at the halfway mark of the year, and despite some rough patches, the financial landscape has shown surprising resilience. Alex kicks things off by detailing how the year began with a normal market correction followed by a sharp crash triggered by unexpected tariff announcements. Despite this, the S&P 500 has managed a modest gain of around 2.3% as of mid-June, largely powered by a few large tech and AI companies.
Economic growth in the U.S. has remained steady, albeit modest, defying some analysts’ recession predictions. Inflation has cooled significantly since its peak in 2022-2023, allowing the Fed to ease interest rates by 75 basis points. However, rate cuts have since paused as the Fed monitors inflation’s remaining pressure, particularly in housing and services.
We discuss how consumer sentiment is mixed. While spending continues, signs of fatigue are emerging amid ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the political landscape. International markets, particularly in Europe and emerging regions, have outperformed U.S. stocks slightly this year—marking a shift from the trend of U.S. dominance.
Within asset classes, small-cap and value stocks have underperformed, while bonds have been flat to slightly negative. Cash and money markets remain attractive for their yield, but their long-term return potential is limited. Real assets like gold have performed strongly, benefitting from trade-related fears.
We emphasize that major institutional investors have responded to market turbulence by rebalancing rather than making drastic shifts—a strategy we support for retail investors too. When volatility hits, buying low through rebalancing beats the temptation to time the market. Chasing hot sectors, like tech and AI, is risky and often leads to poor results.
Ed follows up with key takeaways. First, staying invested through volatility has paid off, reinforcing that time in the market beats timing it. Second, diversification remains essential, as relying on a few high-performing stocks can backfire. Finally, mindset is everything. Markets change fast, and the ability to remain disciplined and focused on long-term goals is critical to success. Whether it's Fed policy, geopolitical tensions, or surprise earnings, what matters most is how we respond—not how well we predict.
The markets have reinforced what we preach every episode. Have a plan, and don't give in to emotional or market temptation.