In this episode of Nurturing Financial Freedom, we kick off 2025 by discussing the economic highlights of 2024 and what lies ahead for the U.S. economy and markets. Ed provides an economic overview, while Alex dives into financial market performance and predictions.
2024 saw significant progress in inflation reduction, with CPI falling from its 2022 peak of 9.1% to 2.8% by late 2024. While the Fed’s soft landing approach avoided recession and brought inflation closer to its 2% target, uncertainties like potential tariffs remain. GDP growth for 2024 ended on a strong note at 2.7%, and economists project continued growth in 2025, with estimates ranging from 2.1% to 2.4%. The labor market, though slightly looser than in previous years, remains robust, with unemployment at 4.1%, still below historical averages.
Interest rates, which peaked at 5.25% in mid-2023, were reduced incrementally to 4.25% by the end of 2024. While the Fed is not expected to cut rates further in early 2025, analysts predict additional rate reductions later this year, potentially lowering rates to around 3.25% by year-end.
Turning to the markets, 2024 was a stellar year for U.S. equities, driven largely by the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants. The S&P 500 delivered an impressive 25% return, although most of this growth came from a small number of dominant stocks. In contrast, value stocks underperformed, returning 12.3%, while international stocks lagged with a modest 4.4% return. Other asset classes, including small and mid-cap stocks, bonds, and real estate, showed moderate gains. Gold, interestingly, mirrored the stock market’s strong performance, rising by 25.5%.
Looking ahead to 2025, major banks predict modest market growth, with the S&P 500 expected to yield returns of approximately 10%-12%. But despite a number of predictions - they are just that: predictions. And Alex shares what he and the team think about these predictions. They are speculative, and market behavior is inherently unpredictable. The key takeaway is to remain diversified, stick to a long-term financial plan, and avoid reactionary decisions based on short-term market volatility.
As always, staying prepared for market uncertainty while maintaining a balanced, goals-based strategy is critical for long-term success.